Race Time Predictor
Got a recent race result? Enter it once and see what you could run across every distance — from 5K to marathon. We show a range, not a single number, because that's the honest answer.
Estimated VDOT: 43.4
| Distance | Predicted range | Pace |
|---|---|---|
| 5K | 22:03 – 22:57 | 4:30/km |
| 10K | 45:10 – 48:40 | 4:41/km |
| Half Marathon | 1:37:43 – 1:49:18 | 4:54/km |
| Marathon | 3:19:59 – 3:51:37 | 5:07/km |
Predictions are an estimate from a single result and assume similar conditions and specific training. We always show a range, not a single number — the longer the jump from your input, the wider it gets.
This predictor uses the Riegel formula — T2 = T1 × (D2 ÷ D1)^1.06 — the same race-equivalence math RUNNIQ uses inside the app. It also estimates your VDOT, a VO₂max-equivalent from Daniels' Running Formula, as a cross-check.
A prediction from a single result assumes you've done the specific training for the target distance. A fast 5K does not automatically make you marathon-ready — endurance for the longer race still has to be built. That's why the range widens the further the predicted distance is from the one you entered.
Inside RUNNIQ, these projections use all of your recent runs (not just one) and update as your fitness changes, so the 'you could run a 1:42 half today' headline actually tracks your training.
Frequently asked questions
How accurate is a race time prediction?+
It's a good ballpark when conditions and training are similar, and least accurate for big jumps in distance — for example, predicting a marathon from a 5K. Always treat it as a range.
What is VDOT?+
VDOT is a single number representing your current running fitness, derived from a race result. Higher is fitter. It lets you compare efforts across distances on one scale.
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